An Israeli ground offensive on Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, would be a clear violation of the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel. The city is experiencing is consistent with Israel’s aim, which has been clear since the war began, to push the Palestinians to a new “transfer” to Egypt.
This aim, stated by senior Israeli officials, has raised widespread concerns in Egypt. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi expressed these concerns when he rejected the displacement of Gaza's populations to Sinai, calling it “the liquidation of the Palestinian cause.”
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Israel has achieved its most important political goals by almost completely destroying the Gaza Strip, sabotaging its infrastructure and creating enormous suffering for its residents, forcing them to flee.
One of Israel's top goals is to control the Philadelphi Corridor, with the city of Rafah at its heart, and then attack the Strip from all sides. Between the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip, this 14 km (8.7 mile) buffer zone includes the Rafah crossing, which is Gaza’s main exit to the outside world. Israel wants to control the corridor to encircle the strip.
Israel has likely sought to create this disastrous situation in Gaza. The aim is to turn the lives of more than 2 million Palestinians into hell, forcing them to accept anything given to them, whether it is a local administration established by Israel, or pushing them to voluntary and forced displacement toward Egypt.
Targeting the narrow area that is crowded with Palestinians from Gaza may lead to an influx of displaced people across the border into Egypt.
Concerned, Egypt has strengthened security along its border with Gaza, sending tanks and building a concrete wall topped with barbed wire and surveillance devices.
For Ayman al-Raqab, a political science professor at Al-Quds University, the Rafah offensive would cause a “forced exodus” to the Egyptian border, raising tensions between Egypt and Israel and pushing Egypt to “suspend the peace agreement and allow the Palestinians to carry out operations against Israel from its territory.”
The battle over the Philadelphi Corridor
Israeli Army Radio recently reported that Egyptian officials informed Israel that they would not prevent any military operation in Rafah as long as it was conducted without harming Palestinian civilians there.
Responding to the report, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry warned in a statement against “the dire consequences of the Battle of Rafah” and the risk of exacerbating the humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip.
This media tug-of-war has caused confusion between those who see Israel's statements as a means of pressure under the pretext that it has received Egypt's green light to invade the city, and those who believe that Egypt does not have the necessary tools to dissuade Israel from invading Rafah.
Researcher Mahmoud Hadhoud believes Egypt has given its approval to the Rafah offensive, as reported by the Israeli Army Radio.
Israel's reoccupation of the Philadelphi Corridor would have consequences on Egyptian national security.
"Egypt does not have the ability to refuse at all. It does not have tools to pressure Israel and prevent any of plans. So Egypt establishes understandings with Israel to mitigate the consequences of the attack on the Egyptian border on the one hand, and the regional consequences on the other hand,” Hadhoud said.
Al-Raqab said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is using the invasion card to pressure Hamas to ease its terms in the negotiations. He adds that Egypt rejects Israel's reoccupation of the Philadelphi Corridor due to the consequences on Egyptian national security.
Al-Raqab said Cairo has called for the U.S. to pressure Israel to stop this operation, “fearing that matters would develop beyond the entry of Rafah.”
Hadhoud argued that Egypt rejects Israel’s control of the Philadelphi Corridor because that means Egypt losing its influence in Gaza which it “benefits from at the international level in light of the severe decline in its international and regional presence.”
Israel wants control without responsibility
Egypt is concerned that Israel’s aim to control the border extends beyond the end of the war.
But Hadhoud said such concerns are not realistic, given that controlling the Philadelphi Corridor would hurt more than help Israeli interests.
By controlling the corridor, Israel would be “fully responsible for the Gaza Strip's livelihood, and practically means reoccupying the Gaza Strip. Therefore, the best situation for Israel is to remain in the position of ‘controller without responsibility,’ as is currently the case,” Hadhoud said.
For Egypt, losing the control of Rafah means losing its leverage on Gaza.
Israel seeks to tighten the siege on Gaza, which has seven crossings, six of which are completely under Tel Aviv’s control. Only Rafah, which connects Gaza to Egypt, is outside of Israeli control. For Egypt, losing the control of Rafah means losing its leverage on Gaza.
Israeli media reports that the Netanyahu government wants to move the Rafah crossing's location closer to the Kerem Shalom crossing to put it under Israeli control.
Both Hadhoud and al-Raqab said that a ground offensive on Rafah means pushing thousands of Palestinians to the Egyptian border. It is not possible to find a way to evacuate civilians from Rafah — as the United States and Israel claim — other than displacing them to Sinai, they said.
